In an Uncut town hall broadcast on national television from the University of Belize Belmopan Jaguar Auditorium, Economist Dr. Victor Bulmer‑Thomas, Professor Emeritus from the London School of Economics, delivered a stark assessment: Belize’s economy has remained largely unchanged over the past two decades .
Despite modest recovery in recent years, Belize continues to rank among the poorest nations in Central America. According to Bulmer‑Thomas, the country now lies as the third poorest in the region .
He characterizes the situation as one of stagflationary conditions—a troubling combination of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. This scenario, he notes, has lingered for many years .
Summary & Insights
| Key Point | Details |
|---|---|
| Growth flat-lined | Economic output has stayed around the same for 20 years. |
| Relative poverty | Belize ranks third-lowest on income scale within Central America. |
| Stagflation concerns | Simultaneous stagnant growth and inflation hinder forward progress. |
Why This Matters
Long-term stagnation makes it hard for Belizeans to advance socio‑economically. Traditional economic fixes may fail unless inflation-adjusted strategies are employed. Multiple sectors—like tourism, agriculture, and finance—are feeling the squeeze from this prolonged standstill.
Bottom line: Belize is trapped in a two-decade standoff—moderate recovery without real progress, keeping it stuck near the bottom of its region economically.
Executive Summary
The Belizean economy, like so many countries dependent on tourism, suffered a huge fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic known as COVID-19. Since then, the economy has grown rapidly with unemployment falling to very low levels. And yet this impressive performance since 2020, while very welcome, has only brought GDP per head of population in 2024 (after adjusting for inflation) back to where it was in 2007. This means that Belize has underperformed in comparison to both of its peer groups – the Caribbean and Central America – leaving it as the third poorest country in the Caribbean in terms of GDP per head and experiencing a relative decline against all Central American countries in the last two decades.
Forecasts of the Belizean economy by international agencies suggest that growth of GDP will soon revert to much lower rates that are only marginally higher than the increase in population. The forecasts may be incorrect, but it would be unwise to ignore them – especially as income and wealth distribution in Belize may be shifting towards greater inequality. Thus, the second part of the paper is concerned with new ways of looking at the Belizean economy to see what scope there might be for different approaches that could raise the long-run sustainable rate of growth of GDP per head while improving income distribution. The key to this approach is input-output analysis, never before employed in Belize, using an input-output table derived from data published by the Statistical Institute of Belize.
Click The Following Link To Download Full Text Dr. Victor Bulmer-Thomas (Will Open In New Tab): The Belizean Economy In The 21st Century: When And Why Belize Fell Behind And What To Do About It
— Victor Bulmer-Thomas is Professor Emeritus of Economics at London University and Honorary Professor at the Institute of the Americas, University College London. The author of many books and articles on Latin America and the Caribbean, he coauthored (with Barbara Bulmer-Thomas) The Economic History of Belize.